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the changes could mean. >>> welcome back. take a look at the u.s. equity futures. dow and s&p coming off their worst week since july 4th. you can see they are indicated higher, but maybe not the bounce you might have expected. the dow up 23. >> squawk sports new, texans beating the bears 13-6. foster finished with 102 yards rush and touchdown catch and texans intercepted cutler twice before knocking him out with a concussion. >> no comment about the jets? >> they lost. >> andrew, here's the deal. >> did you see rex ryan -- >> the giants won the super bowl last year. a lot of people have told him he's fat and he should shut up. he's not fat anymore. she just shut up. but sanchez, you brush up against him and the ball goes flying out. >> they've been going back and forth. >> when the giants are the defending the super bowl champions and they got their butts kicked by the bengals and the other game unbelievable is johnny football. texas a and m and alabama, that was unbelievable. alabama number one. texas a and m just joined the sec. and this guy johnny football, you just can't believe the
saudi arabia? could an abundance of shale oil in the u.s. actually bring about energy independence by the year 2020? we drill for the truth straight ahead. and how rich is rich? the president wants higher taxes for americans earning more than $250,000 a year. is that fair? or should that number actually be $1 million? and could this be the key to resolving the looming fiscal cliff? that and a lot more is still to come on the "closing bell." >>> if a budget is not agreed upon to avoid the fiscal cliff, the average middle class family will pay $2,000 more in taxes. >> that's right. crunch time is upon us. the markets and economy will be held hostage until lawmakers do reach a deal on the fiscal cliff, presumably between now and the end of the year. >> eamon javers is breaking down the plan. over to you. >> just before the break, you and bill were debating whether or not it's too early to start getting sweaty palms about in fiscal cliff problem in washington. as a guy covering capitol hill for almost 20 years, i can tell you it's never too early to panic about what washington might do
timetable. if they don't see that it would be inconsistent with maintaining a aaa rating. the u.s. is on negative outlook. s&p already downgraded. >> i think that we all kind of remember what happened -- i think that the big worry on the left side would be i think listen, nothing happened. interest rates went down again. that's a scare tactic. i'll use a scare tactic. $600 billion in new taxes january 1. that's reality. >> unemployment going back to 9.1 if this happens. that's a number that gets your attention. the "times" does a nice piece about fix the debt group. groups of very large companies trying to weigh in on their own side with ads. i don't know if we have them right now. nike with a mock nike ad that says just fix it. mcdonald's saying i'm fixing it. >> home depot. we can fix it. >> that group raised a lot of money over the last year or so. $30 million, $40 million, more than you might have anticipated to mount this public campaign. >> dave is doing a lot of great things. ceo of honeywell. wants to put aside -- i don't know if he's a democrat or republican. i know he's
thought to the findings of the congressional committee on the culpability of jon corzine, the former u.s. senator with respect to the mf global collapse. >> i think it is no surprise that corzine gets all the blame there from republicans. they want to embarrass a guy who's got democratic connections. he was to blame. he made these big bets. the more interesting thing to me is the extent to which it shows that the s.e.c. and the cftc were completely at odds with one another, not in sync, and makes the argument strongly for merging those two. it does make the case more strongly for merging those two agencies. >> thank you very much, ben. we'll talk more about that congressional report in our next half-hour. simon? >>> tyler, in 53 minutes, a major news conference begins in which we're expecting an announcement that bp, british petroleum, is agreeing flou to pay the u.s. government a record fine for the disastrous oil spill in the gulf of mexico. what was it? two years ago. bertha coombs has details. bertha. >> that's right, simon. they will admit guilt and pay the largest fine ever by a u.
arabia being overtaken by the u.s. as the top oil producer in the world by o2020. saudi arabia is the second largest oil exporter to the u.s. this change is going to happen because we have already started to see a change in the unconventional sources of gas and oil and the growth there is really what is helping to make what this agency is saying energy independence be able to become a reality for the u.s. by 2035. the other key thing to keep in mind it is natural gas leading the way in terms of the globalal gas production. it will make up half of gas production by 2035. a lot of thatoming from the u.s. what all of this means in terms of the global energy trade is that we will see a shift in terms of the diversification and build up in supply. we will have a change in terms of where the middle east oil is going, as well. 90% of that is expected to go to asia by 2035. >> i'm curious what the temperature on the floor was on this report. do people buy this? >> a lot of traders say it is already priced in when you look all the way out to 2017 and 2020 we are seeing that priced in an
economists and business leaders say could send the u.s. economy back into recession. here we have an interesting divide between wall street and washington. wall street seems to believe and you can take a look at the numbers on how the market has acted over the past year. wall street seems to believe that we'll avert this cliff. washington seems to be willing to drive over the cliff. >> i think there's -- i don't want to pick on the tea party per se. you can say if obama would suddenly give in on taxes. what i worry about is there are people who are ideological in the country and more focused on other issues than taxation and money. those people i think are very much out of sync with other people as we discovered last night from the election. they could care less about the fiscal cliff. i think some people want to go over the cliff. >> howard dean last night, sam on "squawk" a couple weeks ago saying maybe it's the best medicine for us is to drive over this thing, go into a recession, provide some bed for growth in the second half of the year. it's a gamble. >> $5 trillion in cuts.
resigning. in a private hearing, he told lawmakers that he believed all along that the attack on the u.s. consulate in benghazi, libya was a terrorist strike despite how the white house initially portrayed it. of the scandal that led him to resign, petraeus expressed his regret about the circumstances of his departure but said nothing more. simon? >>> two major breaking stories right now impacting the oil market. there's been an explosion on an oil rig in the gulf of mexico off the coast of venice, louisiana. a company called black elk energy operates that rig. reports are that a worker may have cut a line with a settling torch. four people have been rushed to the hospital, two are reportedly still missing. so far we have no reports of oil actually leaking into the gulf. >>> meanwhile, also breaking right now, the u.n. nuclear agency says iran is about to double output of higher enriched uranium. now that is a material that can easily be turned, we're told, into a nuclear warhead. sharon epperson is following the oil impact on both of those breaking stories. sharon, over to you. >> brent
's next. >>> if congress drifts u.s. economy off the fiscal cliff, the department of education's 2013 budget will be cut by over $4 billion with $256 million cut from the federal student aid program. and his new boss told him two things -- cook what you love, and save your money. joe doesn't know it yet, but he'll work his way up from busser to waiter to chef before opening a restaurant specializing in fish and game from the great northwest. he'll start investing early, he'll find some good people to help guide him, and he'll set money aside from his first day of work to his last, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. it's just common sense. when you take a closer look... the best schools in the world... see they all have something very interesting in common. they have teachers... ...with a deeper knowledge of their subjects. as a result, their students achieve at a higher level. let's develop more stars in education. let's invest in our teachers... they can inspire our students. let's solve this. >>> welcome back. i'm bertha coombs
attractive, not just in the u.s., but abroad you'll invite a lot of competitors. so the delta between what you're creating versus the competitors versus every rnd strategist on the planet will narrow and it will continue to have a lead and maybe not a lead as substantial as they used to have, but for your commentator to say that your company isn't special anymore and this is a company that generates $1 billion of free cash flow per week and it's ludicrous to say this and probably the most important and most successful in the planet. >> so porter, what turns it around. what gets sentiment back going the other direction and that's all that matters to people that believe the apple story. >> the headlines earlier this week is that apple is losing market share in the tablet business and of course, they will because they invented that product category and there are now a dozen competitors and the market is growing at over 50% a year and so there's plenty of room to go. they are definitely, as paul pointed out. they are the market leader and they're going to have less share of a bigger, growing m
is that the u.s. bankruptcy judge said that the parties have agreed to a medation in the prevention of shutting down hostess. that will likely be monitored by the same judge tomorrow morning at 11 a.m. this is an attempt to avoid a shutdown, even though in today's hearing the hostess brand lawyer said it would be, quote, very hard to recover from this damage even if there were to be an agreement in the near term. still unclear what this actually means for hostess's ability to operate is a going certain but still a positive move and we'll stay tuned to what actually happens tomorrow. >> he's put off the table for now chapter 7 or chapter 11, is that my understanding? he's going to get them to do a deal even though bakers have rejected? >> that's right. an alternative to liquidation for today. he's giving them till tomorrow to say, if quu agree on some terms in the private, the brain trust will be in a room trying to hammer out a deal. if not, more options will be on the table. at least for the next 24 hours it looks like liquidation is off the table. but just for this very short term. also the q
, this is fascinating. the fiscal cliff issue is a reason for many markets to move in the u.s. it's also big reason in europe and as it overlays several months going back to june with dow jones industrial average, you can see that our market was impacted more by the election but both charts are highly correlated and it's the fact that we are talking potential solutions to our fiscal cliff. melissa lee, back to you. >> thank you very much, rick santelli. just a note here, we're waiting for intel to begin trading again. a delayed open because of news that ceo will be retiring in may. we're awaiting that opening trade. 9:45 eastern time is our latest indication. meantime, will we see a massive correction even if there is a fiscal cliff deal? that's what david shulman is saying. find out why the senior economist is making such a bearish call. brewing job creation. what the folks at sam adams are doing to get food and beverage entrepreneurs a lift. stay tuned. [ male announcer ] introducing the new dell xps 12. part of a whole new line of tablets from dell. it's changing the conversation. ♪ well, havi
for chapter 11. different news to digest. sales in the u.s., ford, gm, doing well. japanese automaker selling to china not doing so well. foreign automaker selling into china doing well at bmw. >> i think the suzuki thing mirrors what's happening at ford. >> i had an eye on one of their models. >> which one? >> the one with the four wheels. >> i have a harley in my garage. >> i'm not kidding. >> which garage is it by the way? do you even know? >> one of them is flooded. are you happy with that? >> is there a side car at leas.? >> i have tattoos all of the way up you just don't see them. suzuki blinking, ford, blinking, gm starting to blink. there's anti-globalization going on that we have to notice. some people say that i can't hack it in these markets. toyota was good. bmw was downbeat in terms of future. it wouldn't be something if everyone recognized what alcoa recognized. maybe it's too hard to be global. maybe it's too hard. go, suzuki was broken by the yen. it's hard to do business when you have these currency wars going on. >> how about kimberly getting out of diapers in europe? there'
that the u.s. doesn't go into a recession? >> well, first i want to say the metaphor fiscal cliff is probably the wrong one. you step off a cliff, that's your last step. for many politicians, the real metaphor is it's a slope. they gradually go into these tax increases and spending cuts. they feel they can turn around and walk back up the slope, retroactively reverse the changes. in that circumstance, in that scenario, it creates a lot of uncertainty for businesses and for taxpayers. what will our taxes be next year? how are we going to make some plans for our business or personal finances? it's that uncertainty that's going to, i think, have adverse effects for the economy. >> okay. that makes a lot of sense. michael jones, how do you want to invest here with all this? >> i think there are times when the market is really simple. don't fight the fed. you certainly don't want to fight the fed when they've got the ecb, the bank of japan, the people's bank of china, and virtually every other central bank on their side. you've had unprecedentedly aggressive monetary stimulus. we have open-ended c
'm going to start with you today because we see that stutter step opening in the u.s. stock market. some of that could be attributable, i guess, to the plunge in spanish ten-year yields when rumors got out that maybe spain was going to ask for a bailout from the ecb. while we obsess so much on the fiscal cliff, the markets are paying close attention to what's going on in europe, yes? >> oh, well, i don't disagree. nothing gets past you, bill. i think the fiscal cliff for lack of any tangible movement there is up and center. look at the chart bill is referring to. at one point, we were up eight basis points on the ten-year in spain. by the end of the session, down three. the following charts might put a better face on it. if to you open the chart up to about a month, you can see that rates for the most part were about a one-month high in spain. if you look at their safe harbor counterparts, the exact mirror image of lower rates. the rumor is, hey, if you build it, a bailout facility, they will come. spain may be on their way, but it's still only rumor at this point. >> steven, how much of
, there is some risk there and maybe something needs to be done. but we're lumping in u.s. treasury money funds, u.s. government agency money funds, muni money funds. are we going to say they're subject to credit loss also? we have to get more specific about these major policy changes rather than throwing a blanket over an entire industry. >> great point. we're going to leave it there. you're betting on whether or not we go over the fiscal cliff this year. what do you think? >> i'm worried. >> you're frworried. >> i don't see the leadership at this point in time i'm hoping to see from the white house. >> walt, great to have you on the program. really appreciate it. walter is the president and ceo of the charles schwab corporation. >>> meanwhile, the honeywell ceo was at that fiscal cliff meeting with president obama today. it just wrapped up. he joins us now for a first-on cnbc interview from the white house. david, good to have you on the program. thank you so much for joining us. >> thanks. good to be here. >> okay. so leading up to this meeting with the president, you were skeptiabou seeing a dea
the dollar. we've had, for example, people expecting that qe would lead to a big crash in the u.s. dollar. it didn't really do that. i think part of what we're seeing in the u.s. dollar is the question mark still about europe now. you have the greek situation and the bunt coming up for a vote there, some uncertainty as to where that's going to go. so that may be weighing a bitton euro helping the dollar. i think the dollar is much more now in play with what is going on in the rest of the world, rather than a u.s. story per se. >> avery, good to talk to you. avery shenfeld. be sure to keep it locked into cnbc for all your election day coverage tomorrow. we kick it off at 5:00 p.m. >>> apple posting better than expected sales of the ipad mini. our guy adami gave a little trade school on when to buy apple stock. take a listen. >> well, i would use sort of 610 as a pivot. 610 i think a close above 610, it breaks out again towards the upside. >> all right. the stock popped today, closed above the 575 level. what do you do now? >> the low on friday was 575.75. it doesn't really matter what you
, the u.s. helping to give a boost with stocks across the board. and tech, a bright spot in today's session with notable moods. it's interesting, you go from the month of october where tech was the worst performing sector and moved into november and how quickly things changed. >> it felt like the first of the month, i'm not making light of it, i think that's a lot of what's going on. tech clear, microsoft performed well. intel to me, the most interesting one. finally catching a bounce for no apparent reason. here we are again at 1425, give or take, that was support on the way down a couple times. it's resistance on the way up. and here we are right now, my inclination is to stave this move, we'll know more in 12 to 14 hoyers from now. >> the semiconductor up 3%. it's almost as if people forgot about the forecast for the demise of the pc and said the month of november, we're going to go in, they're cheap, they're beaten down, and that's where the value is at this point. >> we've seen a big rotation trade. the most encouraging aspect of what's happened in the market over the last tw
, the euro u.s. dollar crosses hugely influential on u.s. stock prices. it has been for a long time and the news we heard out of germany was pretty bad and now you combine that with the fact that we're through this last earning season. and now we're going to plunge into this fiscal cliff stuff and i don't think that anyone believes it's going to be an easy compromise, even the people who think we're going to see a compromise are expecting a run of negative headlines that hits the tape day after day. that's kind of what is going on here. the game is in the obama index and is probably not going to last because selling like this tends to take down everyone in the end. >> but it's telling that that's the only area of the market that appears to be positive today, right? >> i agree. >> and what's the message of the markets today, in your opinion? >> i think that this is a focus shift. this is basically saying, look, we had a lot of tough government budget problems, tough business investor problems that we put off until after the elections and said we have some certainty and we can readdre
's going on in defense. also, regardless of the fiscal cliff there's cuts. the u.s. government is the world's biggest buyer of software associated with the running of any kind of government. that's another kind of corollary here. a big comment from a lot of people in the defense industry about that yesterday. i think they're the first company to come out and make realistic expectations of what will happen in the next couple of years. back to you. >> okay. thank you. dave cote is the head of the curve on all of this. let's shift to bonds and dollar. rick santelli at the cme group in chicago. rick? >> thank you, jim. everyone is excited about good housing numbers. everybody but the fixed income market. everybody but the equity market. i know there's an hp issue here. however, let's look at the charts. let's put up a two-day chart of tens. clearly you can see we're up about a basis point on the day. if you look on the right side of the chart and look around 8:30 eastern, you can't pick out that we had a good housing number. if you really switch this around a bit, you look at the shorter mature
cuts that threaten to send the u.s. almost off a fiscal cliff. a sum met set for friday. i like the "new york times." democrats like a romney idea. >> did you see paul ryan's comment? >> no. but i got my button back on because i'm -- i'm going to tell that you rise above is kind of like a rorschach thing. because for me, rise above means democrats rising above the obsession with rates and realizing broadening the bates is better -- >> it means coming together. >> that is a way of coming together. you're raising revenue. your only way is if the republicans say yes -- >> no, that is not true. my way is anyway you come up with an agreement is a great way. you're only looking from one side of the aisle. >> but they'll never agree to raising rates about sfw. >> i will give you that it is a error sha rorschach test, but i want you to actually cut some things and i want you to deal with expenditures. >> you have the same house that said no to 39.6 on the high he said. but a way of raising revenue will spur growth -- they're coming around to the correct version right here. >> what about
. >> but the question is what your long-term outlook is. if you're betting against u.s. growth, betting against -- or betting there will be a huge issues in the coming years on these -- on the deficit issue, you may want to keep it off the table. >>> there's a third area there. i don't talk to anybody, steve or our guest, who doesn't think the u.s. can easily ramp up growth. the real discussion i don't think is the true u.s. economy. i thinkist the moguling being throw in front of it, our self-inflected issues, you know, last time around we sequestration. are we going to have sequestration 2? of course we'll put a band-aid, but we need leverage to have reform predicated to surrender on the band-aid. >>> we've got to go, guys. i've got to go with this. we've got to move on. this is the last hour of trading, so we've got to move here. thank you for your thoughts today. steve, thank you, you're voting on a committee of politicians. i find hope in that somehow. >> yeah. you're in the hopeful camp. >> hoping at the last moment they will do the right thing. >> was that a pig that just flew by? the ma
's number two. third one of course is u.s. election. this is where some of the problems is. have you noticed german bonds today moving on the upside rather aggressively. u.s. bonds moving on the upside. that's all this stalemate concerns out here. that's all i heard this morning. that's all i heard over the weekend. the likely outcome is a stalemate no matter who wins on the fiscal cliff. obama will have to compromise. romney will have to compromise. what's the best hope for the industry and business right now? best hope is a last-minute deal to postpone tax cuts for yet another year, which could in fact go into the first quarter of negotiations. some of the people are more optimistic it will happen before that. some are not. that's why we get bonds moving to the upside right now. jim, i noticed that you mentioned the deal this morning with kbw. it's a symptom of what's going on in the friday overall. this was the big topic of the day. those who didn't hear, they are buying kbw for no premium. we're talking 6% premium. the stock was 16. offering 17 and change. that's no premium out there. th
. this isn't issue number one for the u.s. economic recovery has been unsatisfying. that's one area where wall street is hoping that's the way it would go under a romney president and probably will go that way. >> what about taxes? let's go through the two plans on taxes. this is one of the more important yishdz for wall street, whether it's capital gains taxes, dividend taxes, ordinary income. let's define each side here. todd? >> well, look, romney's been very -- he wants a tax-friendly environment, maria. he's been vocal about that. i mean, that's just the culture of the gop. but then these guys are the odd couple. you have president obama who clearly is talking about higher taxes for the upper class and also thinking, have you to look at those other taxes, health care taxes, for example, that will impact the middle class. you have a romney presidency, you can only assume we have will have a cut in taxes but we need to resolve this fiscal cliff issue. it's not just resolving the fiscal cliff, it's also a long-term plan up. don't want to have to go through this every 12 months, talk abo
no time on this issue today. fitch saying the u.s. needs to fix that debt threat and moody's says it's going to wait before taking any action and maintain its negative outlook on the u.s. economy. one thing is for sure. the stock market is taking the fiscal cliff very seriously. the blue chip average is off the lows but still down sharply at one time today, the dow was down about 369 points. first time we've seen that big of a decline since november 21st of last year. off the lows rights now, the dow down 260 points at 12,985. the nasdaq is down 63 points, a more than 2% decline at 2947. the s&p at this hour is down 28 points right at 1400. let's break down what's behind today's dramatic decline in stocks in today's "closing bell" exchange. we welcome back michael pento, kwint tatro, jeff sika, and our own rick santelli. quint, you believe the market was going to go down either way. why? >> i do. i think this was long overdue. we have been propped up with some incertauncertainty. it's kept the market saying, are we going to get a change? it didn't matter who won. we've been facing pr
.com. >>> breaking news on an iranian fighter plane attacking a u.s. drone. it happened before election day. why are we just learning about this now? today? >>> but before we go to break, don't forget free market capitalism is the best path to prosperi prosperity. maybe there is going to be some progress in washington. i have an open mind. i'm kudlow. we'll be right back. [ female announcer ] want to spend less and retire with more? at e-trade, our free online tools and retirement specialists can help you build a personalized plan and execute it with a wide range of low cost investments. get a great plan and low cost investments at e-trade. >>> we are more breaking news tonight. u.s. defense officials confirm today that iranian fighter planes fired and missed at a u.s. drone. that was just days before election day. so why are we learning about it mow for the first time? joining me, syndicated radio talk show host, john bachelor. >> good evening, larry. >> good evening. they fired at one of our unmanned drones. why didn't we fire back? why didn't we take some retaliatory action? are we just patsy
. >>> clicks and profits, u.s. consumers are expected to spend at least $1.5 billion on this cyber monday. we'll run through the cyber winners and losers next. >>> here's another number. $5 billion, that's how much americans are expected to spend on christmas gifts for their pets this year. we'll talk to petsmart ceo in a cnbc exclusive about his company's share of this huge holiday booty coming up. >>> plus, flu shot or your job? 150 employees getting canned the day before thanksgiving for refusing to get flu shots. is that legal? stay with us. i put away money. i was 21, so i said, "hmm, i want to retire at 55." and before you know it, i'm 58 years old. time went by very fast. it goes by too, too fast. ♪ but i would do it again in a heartbeat. [ laughs ] ♪ ♪ you can stay in and share something... ♪ ♪ ...or you can get out there with your friends and actually share something. ♪ the lexus december to remember sales event is on, offering some of our best values of the year. this is the pursuit of perfection. the potential of yelp unlocked. nyse euronext. unlocking the world's poten
higher, the u.s. dollar is pulling back, and the vix is acting incredibly benign. and i just disagree with what josh just said. i think apple's performing well better than the overall market today. i think if you look at ibm, the ibm story is clearly in tact. the most diversified tech story there is, outperforming the market today. i think there is opportunity in the tech space, unless you believe this is '08 all over again. >> all right. coming up on the half, one home improvement company spiking to its highest level in more than a decade. but is there still more room to the upside. >>> plus, ron johnson and now her shing square's big ackman have made their cases for jcpenney, but should you buying this start-up story? more "halftime" is straight ahead. sometimes investing opportunities are hard to spot. you have to dig a little. fidelity's etf market tracker shows you the big picture on how different asset classes are performing, and it lets you go in for a closer look at areas within a class or sector that may be bucking a larger trend. i'm stephen hett of fidelity investments. the
a big exodus in stocks. $9 billion flowed out of u.s. equities last week, the biggest outflow this year matched only by the week before the presidential election. so is this rational behavior? or perhaps a lost opportunity here? and it's important to see where the inflows were too. the biggest inflows were to money market funds. and that is -- >> that's rash -- >> yeah, just go to cash. i'm cashing out. >> they may be costing you money to put your money in the mutual funds. and this is the problem because monetary policy has gotten in the way of fiscal policy. and in fact, if you look at today's market. today was all about monetary policy reversing course of the s&p when, in fact, all we should be talking about is fiscal policy and we can't get anything done. >> doesn't it stand to the point of how desperate people are to hold on to their cash? it mean, we've seen this. there's always a reason to wait, always a reason to stop trading, always a reason to move to the sidelines. and you keep getting them time after time after time. you have the election, you have fiscal cliff, you have tax
not only surprises the street with a beat but says the u.s. enterprise business is showing signs of improvement. >>> and abercrombie silences the shorts. >> the president is scheduled to meet with a dozen ceos this afternoon to hear their concerns about looming tax increases and spending cuts. 73% of participants in a "wall street journal" ceo council conference said the fiscal cliff is their primary concern. goldman chairman and ceo lloyd blankfein talking about the importance of avoiding the fiscal cliff. he writes there's more than a trillion dollars of cash that is sitting on the balance sheets of u.s. nonfinancial companies with certainty about tax rates, companies will increase their capital expenditures currently at anemic levels contributing to a virtuous cycle of jobs and growth." if there was a disagreement as to whether this is becoming a mainstream story. story of "usa today," a giant cliff and inside a chart of how it will affect people. this is getting real. >> the editor of "usa today" is the single best print journalist going today. he understands what the pulse i
downgrade of u.s. debt. they already said that headline last week. we know if it is a short gain we are going to see -- >> if the short game improves a big down payment on the trillion plus that could be enough to stave off s&p for now. >> one an s&p downgrade really wouldn't be that big of a factor. there is a shortage of relatively safe assets. if you think the u.s. is going to default there are several other countries that are first in line. >> last time we had the downgrade you saw the s&p fall off a cliff. it fell off before it. >> everybody knows that. everybody is expecting it. it is already in there. and especially since you have japan with the issues. people are looking for safe assets. china and japan are no longer buying. there is definitely demand. i'm not saying that they go to half a percent. i would be concerned about the fiscal cliff. >> and the feds shown that they have a lot of demand. >> whether it is deal or no deal let's bing in chief economist and strategist. good to see you. >> thanks for having me on. >> it is hard to believe there is a fiscal cliff proof por
decline in gdp. let's fix it. >> i have a great voice. i think out of all of them to me u.s. bank corp is the most stable one. if you had to pick one of the banks for the people playing our home game which do you go with? >> bb&t. i think it is a well managed company. they were off by 5% or so. they had some fundamental issues but got really overplayed here in the down fall. probably 200 to 300 basis points as we come to the conclusion that the fiscal cliff is not going to happen. >> is 23% enough that it makes sense why people are selling off the dividend paying stocks or is that a level that you say on this selloff i am ready to buy? >> so that is a great question and brings in a different area. everybody is saying lops there is weakness in there and under performing the market. that is tax policy reform. that is not happening until next year. the weakness today is unrelated to reform. and i say in the mortgage reach you see the same activity. we don't think the tax structure or code changes for those pieces materially. >> thanks for coming by. we appreciate it. >>> the stocks were o
performance in the quarter. >> what are you seeing in market demand globally? sales increased in the u.s. and abroad. are you seeing a stronger global story today? >> we are. about 2/3 of our business is in latin america. most of the latin american countries in the mid-single digits. we see better category growth in general. category growth in the u.s. is picking up, however. we saw about almost 1.5% to 2% category growth in the u.s. that's a big reversal from where it was two years ago where it was down 2%. we're starting to see the consumer stabilize in the u.s. we're certainly seeing better growth in latin america in particular. >> let me ask you about the implications of hurricane sandy. first off, these gas lines in new york. the story has been just horrible with people unable to get gasoline because these gas stations do not have power. has this impacted your business? >> it hasn't yet, maria. we have one major manufacturing facility in the path of the storm. that was in aberdeen, maryland. our folk there is had the plant shut down for about 24 hours from midday monday to midday tu
softer condition and background in europe politically. and i think improving conditions here in the u.s. for the consumer and for manufacturing and for gdp in general. our general background is pretty positive. >> great points there. sandy, what about you? you say regardless of who wins the election, the fiscal cliff would be either downsized or deferred. what does that mean? >> well, i think downsizing is more likely. have you to factor in the hurricane as well because that's going to be a half a percentage point decline as well, coupled with, you need to get that fiscal cliff down to 1% or maybe 0.5%. i think the downsizing has to be pretty substantial. they're either going to have to defer it to the new congress and either a new administration or the existing one, but they've got to get it downsized pretty substantially pretty quickly. and it's going to require, because of that gridlock we're going to have again, a bipartisan concurrence. that's going to be the test in 2013. >> chris, what do you think? how do you want to invest with $1.5 billion under management, how are you allocat
thing that's changed a little bit is the u.s. has to take its tough medicine. tough medicine is we have to deal with issues like austerity and budgets and taxes. that's what europe has gone through the last three or four years. my guess is going forward this is the opportunity for europe to outshine the u.s. not that the u.s. will be a bad place to be, but incrementally, i think europe really looks good post-election. >> europe is going to outshine the u.s., huh? >> only because people are expecting such terrible things out of europe that when you expect terrible and you get, you know, so-so, that's an upside surprise any way you look at it. >> all right. we'll leave it there. gentlemen, thank you very much. we'll keep watching both those stories. let's get to john fort. he just spoke with the qualcomm ceo on the heels of their earnings report. let's find out what he has to say. john, over to you. >> maria, you already mentioned the headline numbers. i want to focus on guidance and a bit of color. that might change the way people are thinking about some elements of technology, and parti
that is a point of view, i think that assumes they really don't tackle the fiscal deficit. i think the u.s. economy, there's so much money on the sidelines, both in business and retail investors. it wouldn't take much positive momentum. i don't think the bar is that high that people -- you know, they really want to get back to business. i think -- >> but we just have to accept less than we would have gotten historically. >> oh, absolutely. i think right now it's still going to be a long, slow recovery. i don't think it's going to magically come back and shoot and a everything is going to go. it still will be a long, slow recovery. we've come to a difficult crisis. it's a financial crisis. they take time to heal. right now it's about confidence. we really need that leadership and some kind of sentiment in a direction will be helpful. >> real quick, maria bartiromo was speaking with the charles schwab ceo earlier this week. they're cutting their etf fees, which puts pressure on everybody in the industry. will you be doing the same? >> well, we don't manufacture etfs. we have what we call an
world. very selectivity. >> where are you finding them? >> u.s.-based companies. i'm looking for companies whose primary operations are in the u.s. as opposed to emerging markets xhshgs is how i felt for the last few years. i think sectors such as pharma, specialty and big pharma, i think reit sector is very interesting because they can take advantage of the low treasury rates, and i think in the tech space there are a few opportunities but very selective to a handful of companies. >> i'm going to look at you here, joe. bellwether stocks and what they say about the nature of the market. years ago ibm was the bellwether stock. for years general electric, our former parent company, was the bellwether. now apple is with this huge rally today. i know you're a little skeptical about what this rally's employ tod -- about today. but do you follow it? >> i think everybody will agree on the cause but it's the longevity is where i take issue. apple will remain a proxy just because it has, obviously, enormous cash hoard. people are talking about what the dividend will look like. is that
that are interested. and we have financial players that are interested. we have international interests as well as u.s. and domestic. >> i'm not sure if you heard the last interview, but we spoke with one of your union members from the bakers union. he basically said, look, you can't negotiate with terrorists, and they were stealing our pension. in retrospect, was there an area where you could have given to keep some of these union members happier? >> well, you know, it's interesting. i think, you know, i came on board in february after the bankruptcy filing to try to get the company out. and i would readily admit, i think there's a lot of bad history here and a lot of places to point the finger for blame. i don't spend a lot of time doing that because that's sort of like bayonetting the dead in the battlefield. if i could look back, i would say i think there were management mistakes. i think there were union mistakes. as a turnaround guy, i think it should have been done prefiling. these parties negotiated all last year and never got anywhere. i think in retrospect, you could always do different thin
the costliest u.s. catastrophes. forecasting a cost between $10 billion and $20 billion worth of insured losses. the final tally impacted by, among other things, power in the transportation grids. as for the insurance industry with over $500 billion in capital it can pay expected claims. at last year's premium increases and a decline in catastrophe claims bulked up their profile. deutsche bank claims it could trim earnings by 36% but it could also help insurers later giving them cover to raise premiums. back to you. >>> sandynjrelief mary pat christie is on the news line with us right now. welcome. good to have you with us. >> thanks, tyler. >> at some risk, i ask how are you and the christie family holding up? your husband and you have both then tireless this last week. gout to be pretty tired these days? >> we're doing pretty well. it's all relative, right, tyler? we don't have power yet but hopeful that we will soon. i'm also hopeful that our children get to go back to school tomorrow. >> we're in the same boat and expected to go back to school in my town montclair some time on wed
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and save the u.s. economy from going down a dangerous road. it is wednesday, november 7th, the day after and a special early presentation of "squawk box" follows the late presentation that we had yesterday. but it starts right now. >>> good morning, everyone. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. and yes, we know it's only 5:00 a.m. on the east coast, but you don't have to double check your clocks. on the morning after election day, we couldn't wait until 6:00 a.m. to get back on the air. the american public handing president obama four more years in the white house. meantime, the balance of power stays the same in the senate. this morning, we have two main items on the squawk agenda. after months of handicapping the race, we'll find out how the global markets react to the decision and ask how you need to position your portfolio. we have a number of people on hand to help us with that task, including mike santoli. he is our guest the next hour. chuck gabriel, his job is to try to connect the dots between washington and investors. we have jeremy seigel. also, vincent rinehart. we'll be jo
markets closing at 1:00 p.m. eastern on friday. take a look at the u.s. equity futures. the dow is down by about 3 points. the s&p 500 is off by four. the nasdaq down by about 12. because of tomorrow's holiday, you do have the labor department coming out, releasing its weekly jobless claims numbers today. we get them a day early instead of a day late. also today we'll be getting weekly mortgage rates. and freddie mac will report on the weekly mortgage rate averages as well. >> let's talk about the top global market story this morning. it is greece's international lenders, which did not reach a deal, and now they won't be releasing that next bailout payment. nearly 12 hours of talks failed to reach a consensus. the imf and the central bank all going to gather again on monday to try again, but this is not necessarily good news at all. hostess brands will proceed with a plan to go out of business. the maker of twinkies says last-minute talks with the striking workers broke down yesterday, hearing with a bankruptcy judge set for 11:00 eastern time. then we have another string of bad news. >
u.s. equity futures are down by about 21 points. s&p off by 3 1/2. and as we've been talking about daily, the looming fiscal cliff is a big piece of the market story. today barack obama is officially kicking off budget negotiations. at issue is a one-two punch. we have expiring bush era tax cuts and across the board spending cuts both set to hit in january. simpson and bowles with a warning to washington about what's at stake. >> if we get over on the cliff, we don't have a deal, and the market doesn't anticipate that we're actually going to be so stupid as to go over the cliff, then i think you'll see the market really crash and i think you'll see the rating agencies downgrade our credit again, you'll see fitch and moody's join s&p. i think you'll see corporations lose confidence. you'll see them slow down hiring, stop capital xebd churs, capital will go on on strike, it will be a hell of a mess. >> leaders of both parties think it would be to their advantage to go off the fiscal cliff. what a 12 straight that is, that we could win more as democrats if we let it go or we can win m
thanksgiving week, aside from the one disturbance in the central u.s. and the one other area off the carolinas, fairly quiet with the exception of the northwest coastline. that's where we're dealing with a lot of snow and a lot of rain. much of the snow over 7,000 feet. rain especially coastal oregon in some areas 7, 8 inches over the next few days. tuesday, still fairly quiet travel wise. wednesday, that persists in the northwest still remaining one of the trouble spots. thanksgiving, looking pretty good across a good stretch of the country. just a few showers up towards seattle. and as far as the numbers for friday are concerned, looking good there, as well. that may help some of the consumer numbers on black friday. >> why do you have a cool there for thanksgiving? i thought it would be fairly mild here on thursday. i heard low 50s. >> here we are in november, though. so cool, 50s. it's close to the averages. >> all right. just wanted to make sure. i was paying attention. supposed to be sunny and 50s. >> are you going to the parade? >> i'm going to try to go to the parade. we try to go ever
haven't made a payment that was ordered of you. >> ordered by who? by some guy? >> by a judge in the u.s. >> let's go to the hague. i'm appealing to the world court. >> they may appeal to the supreme court right here in the good old united states. >> let's see where that goes. i think argentina is a big country and if they want to, they can say, hey, nice to meet you. >> they can. >> right. >> if they want to get back into the capital markets to borrow money which is unclear if they want to at this point. >> what did you say on friday? >> they also have the money. they can make the payment. it's not as though they are distressed. >> you said they're not even borrowing. >> they're not. >> that's why i listen to your report. >> you did listen. i'm glad you did. >> it's amazing that 12 years after that default we're still talking about some of the ripple effects that's going back a ways. >> i thought it was an amazing story. >> we go back to the old citi saying countries don't go broke. >> remember shipley. tallest man in the world. good guy. a lot of good bankers. >> let's bring up old ban
a single share of stock even if he was guaranteed the u.s. goes off the fiscal cliff. just wait until you hear who he thinks should be the treasury secretary. >> we'll begin of course with the deal of the day. conagra foods has agreed to acquire ralcorp for $5 billion. $90 a share in cash. 28% premium to the closing price on monday. kayla tausche reported on potential for a deal between the two companies back in 2011. it creates the largest private label food company in north america. this is a big deal. >> yes, it is. it's big in size in terms of what we've seen in this market. look how excited he is. and they finally got it done. it's been one as you pointed out that was around in 2011. they couldn't get it done. that is conagra. they walked away. ralcorp stock price fell dramatically. they split the post cereal division from ralcorp. the two trade separately. so you did have a company here that perhaps became a little more -- i wouldn't say vulnerable. not as if they were committed to selling. the board composition changed. you have had activist shareholder get on there. that was very
another couple of percentage points on the upside. keep in mind that the u.s. economy is still growing at a 1% to 2% happenedndle on gdp. like your previous guests mentioned, this fiscal drag that will occur in 2013. so, you know, 1% move in the market today is just noise. we have to look towards what global gdp is going over the course of the next 18 months. that's decelerating. >> so what you're saying, chad, is it doesn't mat who ater who the white house. >> 2013 is going to look exactly like 2012. global gdp will be decelerating. the u.s. economy should perhaps be at a 1% to 2% gdp growth trajectory. that's including a fiscal drag in the united states of about 1%. that's our baseline assumption. but one should consider also that over in europe, you're going to be going into a recession in 2013. and our expectation there is for, perhaps, a 1% contraction. that's going to affect the financial markets here in the united states. one should not dilute themselves of that fact. >> maria, i think that the market today is probably as much about just election uncertainty coming out of the ma
entangled in the mess. he is the top u.s. commander in afghanistan, jeep john allen. eamon javers live in washington with details. >> reporter: well this scandal exploded on friday with the resignation of cia director petraeus. that one caught washington by surprise and then within the past 24 hours, the scape dal has got a whole lot big per, as you say, with now the involvement of the top general in afghanistan. let me walk you through who the players r it can be tricky to keep this cast of characters straight in your own mind. the woman at the center of this scandal seems to be jill kelly. she is a tampa socialite who volunteered at the air force base there and had some kind of relationship with jeep john allen involving e-mails. the fbi is apparently received 30,000 pages of e-mails between the two that were potentially inappropriate there. but kelly's relationship, whatever it was, with john allen, apparently also caused some concern with paula broadwell. broadwell is the biographer of general david petraeus, who has admitted now to having an affair with the cia director. that's br
in general if your catalyst is the u.s. government you should be generally freaking out. free market is not one that hangs on every whim and word of harry reid. at the end of the day there are multiple factors at work here. china hit a new low. we will talk about these things but i think it is multiple factors a at work beyond what somebody in washington says. >> this reminds me of when we had the european crisis or in 2008 when there was the vote on the tarp. i don't think we should overreact to this. if i learned anything from schoolhouse rock making a bill is like sausage making. you will have imaginations going on. >> i don't think they made that comparison on school house rock. >> he was watching a different schoolhouse rock. >> the jack black "schoolhouse rock." >> the fiscal cliff is just a great headline but the tip of the iceberg of what is really ailing or what could potentially ail this market in weeks to come. we are within the whisper of a four-year high. europe is a mess and the data in the states has been mediocre at best. the fiscal cliff is an easy thing to point the
for housing in the u.s. economy and i think that's what's going to offset the fiscal drag. it really is the global economy, and investment trading and trade. some improvement in skboexport . some things to be encouraged about at least in the sense of wee feel comfortable. 103 dollars and $108 to $110. >> if the lame duck does a can kick, does that force do you refocus on your price target. >> if this leads to see question station and is not done el wantly, it's very likely we're going to get a rating downgrade. i just don't think the equity market is going to react as adversely as it did august of it happens. let's soo write headache out and thi think. >> got it. david, thanks so much. >> my pleasure. >> david bianco, chief strategist at deutsche bank. >>> breaking news and our very own mair thompson is on the floor with the stock exchange. ma mary? >> there's a key change way tojt bring to our investors or viewers' attention. this year they're providing a little bit of konk for those submitting new capital plans. they have to submit them by january 7th. if the fed rejects their init
in the u.s. right now? >> i think you have to look at it a couple different ways. number one is sustainability piece on fuel and foreign oil. electrification will play a major role in the industry whether it is pure or assist like we have in lacrosse and impala here and malibu. widely different applications depending on budget, fuel economy and efficiency. we'll offer a lot of those different alternatives here. the spark we're excited about because this is really -- we're going to really go hard in places like california, austin, oregon, where sustainability is part of the real culture and the thread of the way people live. when you look at the spark and you look at what the performance of a car is, we haven't announced the final range because we're not done certifying it but it will be one of the largest range vehicles and torque is more than a ferrari. >> but the skeptic will look at this and say not that you're supposed to comment on the leaf from a competitor standpoint but you look at the leaf and others and people say is there a market for electric vehicles in the u.s.?
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